Opinion: Trump missed the moment. But he’s in better shape at this juncture than in 2016, 2020

For 15 minutes, everything was fine for Donald Trump. He was winning the debate, in fact. The opening questions were about the economy, cost of living and trade policy. He was crisp. He made the contrast he needed to make.
Kamala Harris started wobbly. Shaky. Avoided questions and taking any responsibility for inflation or explaining how she can attack Trump for his tariffs policy when the Biden-Harris administration has left some of his tariffs in place. She even spent some time posing in cut shots with her hand on her chin, obviously trying to create a meme-able moment.
She was all attack and evasion, and it wasn’t working for her.
But then the immigration question happened, and the rest of the debate went off the rails for Trump. Incredibly, Trump, on his bread-and-butter issue, allowed himself to be sidetracked by a taunt from Harris about his rallies.
Harris was asked directly why the Biden-Harris administration waited until six months before the election to do anything about immigration. She ignored it and instead taunted Trump and said people were bored at his speeches and were leaving early.
And he just couldn’t stand it. Instead of nailing her on one of her weakest issues, his voice rose, and he instead offered a spirited defense of his rallies.
And from that point forward Harris largely dictated the flow of the debate.
The moderators for ABC did come prepared to keep Trump in check, time and again fact-checking him while ignoring some of Harris’ whoppers. (She repeated the “bloodbath” lie once again, and the moderators allowed it, as an example. When Trump used that term, he was talking about the American automotive industry and what would happen under continued Democratic policies instead of his.)
To most Republicans, it felt like Trump was playing something of a road game with home cooking from locally hired refs. One Republican texted me that the debate felt more like a trial of Trump with three prosecutors instead of a debate between two candidates.
It did feel to me like the moderators were far more prepared to push and fact-check Trump with little interest in doing the same to Harris.
But that was predictable, and you can’t complain about the refs when you aren’t making your own jump shots. And for Trump, it is no excuse for his getting sidetracked (at least until his closing statement) and failing to make the central case that must be made: If you want change, you can’t leave the same people in charge.
Debates feature lots of questions and topics, but to win them you have to drive a theme. This past weekend’s New York Times poll laid bare what that theme should have been for Trump — be the candidate of change. Luckily for Trump, he’s already seen that way more than Harris.
I’m not sure the debate changed that equation; Harris is, after all, the sitting vice president and she evaded most every question about her administration’s record, surely very noticeable to voters who are quite unhappy with the last three and a half years. But Trump missed several opportunities to steer the conversation back to a theme that works for him.
This was Trump’s seventh presidential debate. Six times now the snap polls have judged him to have been the loser. In 2016, he “lost” all three debates to Hillary Clinton before winning the election. In 2020, he “lost” both debates to Biden and then lost the election.
After the debate Tuesday night, the snap polls showed a resounding Harris debate victory, 63% to 37%. Mind you, this is just debate watchers. One thing Trump depends on for victory this year is politically disengaged voters (especially men), and they likely weren’t watching this closely if at all
Trump is Trump. We know him. We love him. We hate him. There’s nary a person in this country who doesn’t have an immediate and often visceral opinion of him.
So a debate is unlikely to change his image.
But for Harris, she likely cleared the competency bar even as she avoided taking responsibility for the Biden-Harris failures. Polling in the days ahead will tell us more about whether she moved skeptical swing voters. Trump’s image may be immovable, but Harris’ is not. She may see a little bump out of this engagement.
But the enduring question of the election is whether the American people will punish Harris for the Biden-Harris administration. Or will they see her as enough of a different person and give her another chance to get it right. She portrayed herself as “generational change” during the debate (she is just 59, compared with Trump’s 78, even if she clearly doesn’t represent much of a policy change).
The current polls show Trump in a strong position to win, certainly stronger than he ever was in 2016 and 2020 at this point in the campaign. A tied race nationally almost certainly means Trump will win the electoral college.
But the debate offered him perhaps his best chance to cement his position in the campaign, and, like his somewhat disappointing convention speech, he missed a moment.
Scott Jennings is a contributing writer to Opinion, a former special assistant to President George W. Bush and a senior CNN political commentator. @ScottJenningsKY